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Showing posts with label balance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label balance. Show all posts

Sunday, April 19, 2015

By the Way, Kibosh the Khazar Theory Altogether

When I talked to the website owner of and asked him about the testing of Khazar skeletons, I received the following reply, in part:

Why are we still talking about the Khazars? They aren't involved inour ancestry at all and archaeologists and historians say it may bedifficult to distinguish Khazars proper from the other peoples of Khazaria,plus I'm not aware of anybody who has tested Khazar skeletons or plans to, butyou are welcome to ask around now that Russians have successfully testedmany populations like the Yamnaya and the Mal'ta.Based on the latest evidence I would say the Khazars are Volga Finnicintermixed with East-Central Asian Turks and other assorted peoples, andtheir Turkic element is the same one found in other Turks and Mongoliansaround Eurasia, a particular affinity never found in Ashkenazim....In lieu of ancient DNA, modern populationshave proven to be good proxies to determine ethnicity. Did you see my recentarticle "The Chinese Lady who Joined the AshkenazicPeople"? Ashkenazim are also descended from a Korean-related people, from amore recent Asian-Ashkenazic marriage.
Also by the way, I compare Dr. Himladevi "Himla" Soodyall to "Dr." Eran Elhaik. I don't know what agenda "Dr." Soodyall has, although I can ascertain that she attempted to delegitimize the Lemba as much as "Dr." Elhaik attempted to delegitimize Ashkenazi Jews.

PS My dad's Ancestry atDNA in even Analysis 2.0* does, in fact, show a very-slight amount of Middle Eastern atDNA. It also shows a tiny bit of East Asian, Melanesian, Scandinavian, and Finnish/Northwest Russian atDNA. The Melanesian atDNA is probably related to the East Asian atDNA, and Scandinavian atDNA to the Finnish/Northwest Russian atDNA.

*"We create estimates for your genetic ethnicity by comparing your DNA to the DNA of other people who are native to a region. The AncestryDNA reference panel (version 2.0) contains 3,000 DNA samples from people in 26 global regions."
The AncestryDNA panel does need to be balanced**, though:

The updated AncestryDNA ethnicity estimation V2 reference panel contains 3,000 samples carefully selected as described to represent 26 distinct global regions (Table 3.1), each with a somewhat distinct genetic profile. As a comparison, our Beta panel represented only 22 distinct global regions.

Region# Samples
Great Britain111
Europe East432
Iberian Peninsula81
European Jewish189
Europe West166
Finland/Northwest Russia59
Africa Southeastern Bantu18
Africa North26
Africa South-Central Hunter-Gatherers35
Ivory Coast/Ghana99
Native American131
Asia Central26
Asia East394
Asia South161
Near East141
Table 3.1: The Final AncestryDNA V2 Ethnicity Reference Panel

Regional Polygon Construction

As described above, we divide the globe into 26 overlapping geographic regions. Each region represents a population with a somewhat distinct genetic profile. Where possible, we use the known geographic locations of our samples to guide the delineation of regional boundaries. Figure 3.6 shows an example of the information used to define regional polygons.

For a more-accurate panel, they should have 115-16 ("115.384615"). Also, the selection should not be "carefully selected as described". The selection needs to be as random as possible. This cannot be accepted:

Before using the reference set to estimate ethnicities of AncestryDNA customers, we perform several experiments to lend support to the quality of this new reference set. This involves testing the performance of our ethnicity estimation procedure on the reference set of samples. (See Section 4 below for details regarding the statistical method used for ethnicity estimation.)
First, we use the new panel to do a leave-one-out analysis. In this experiment, we remove one sample from the reference panel and then use the remaining panel to estimate the ethnicity of the sample that has been removed. We repeat this process for every sample in the panel and then look at the average predicted ethnicity for each region in the set. Figure 3.4 shows the results of this experiment as a box plot.

Figure 3.4: Leave-one-out analysis of the V2 reference panel. Here we plot the results of an experiment in which each sample is removed from the reference set one-by-one and its ethnicity is estimated using the remaining panel samples. Each bar represents the average correctly predicted ethnicity for all samples from a given region. It is clear from this graph that for the majority of samples in each region, we predict at least 80% of the genetic ethnicity to be from the correct region. However, there are exceptions. In particular, our average prediction accuracy for samples from Great Britain, Western Europe, Iberian Peninsula, and Mali are not quite as high. There are many factors affecting the accuracy of these numbers, most importantly the number of reference samples in the panel for each region and the genetic distinctness of each region.

The purpose of this analysis is twofold. First, reference panel samples with poor performance in the leave-one-out analysis were removed. This included samples from individuals whose leave-one-out ethnicity did not represent their ethnic group of origin. (See for instance, Figure 3.5) Second, the leave-one-out plots allow us to define population boundaries and demonstrate our ability to accurately estimate the ethnicities of our reference panel samples using our method (see next section).

Figure 3.5: Removing Reference Panel Candidates. Leave-one-out estimation for a Reference Panel Candidate with 8 terminal ancestors from the Ivory Coast and Ghana region. While this sample was initially included as a candidate of the reference panel for the Ivory Coast/Ghana region, the sample’s leave-one-out ethnicity estimation reveals primarily Benin/Togo ancestry. As a result, this sample was removed from the reference panel.
In scientific studies, this is unacceptable unless it is for case studies and/or other non-generalizable/non-extrapolatable studies:

There are two sources of error that limit generalizability: sampling error (chance variation) and sample bias (constant error) which results from inadequate research design. Sampling error (but not sample bias) can be taken into account using statistics.
Probability samples are representative of the population. They permit generalization to the population from which they are drawn. There are two types of probability samples: Random and stratified.
Random - each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample.
Stratified - a miniature representation of the larger population with regard to proportions within selected strata (e.g., gender, education, socioeconomic level). Individuals are randomly selected within strata.
table of random numbers or the random number function in Excel can be used to select a random sample from a population.
If a sample is, thus, "poor", it should be put in an "Indeterminable" or a "Poor Sample" category. 

Some would argue, "Well, what about other studies that don't have very-balanced numbers"? Given that numerous studies on Ashkenazi Jews, Lemba Jews, and other groups have been done overtime—and most have shown similar or equal results—the studies balance the numbers at least somewhat in the end. Therefore, the argument about "other studies that don't have very-balanced numbers" is moot at this point.

 ** Stratified Sampling – This technique divides the population into meaningful homogenous or similar groups based on a certain characteristic (e.g., gender, race, socioeconomic status) and then selects a simple random sample from each group. [For example, if you were interested in the affects of student motivation on academic achievement, particularly by grade level, you would divide the population into their respective grade levels and then randomly select an equal number of 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th graders.]


Thursday, August 30, 2012

Goals For the 2012-2013 (And My Final Undegraduate) School Year

Year goals (effective August 30, 2012):

1)      Have one treat per day (Milkshakes, brownies, semester-opening treats, etc. count as treats. Smaller things for special occasions—e.g., mini candies for Halloween, Hanukkah, Christmas, and other holidays—do not.).
2)      Don’t overeat or overindulge. If and in case of overindulging, have plenty of water, oatmeal, coffee, and/or gum on hand and extra water, etc. as necessary.
3)      Eat kosher or mostly kosher (healthy included in kosher).
4)      Go to bed at 12:30-2:00 AM every night, and wake up at 9:30 AM-12:30 PM every day.
5)      Shower at least once a week.
6)      Don’t overspend (including overspending in donating) debit or UMBC card money.
a)      Check debit and UMBC card accounts frequently
b)      When possible, use meal plans for Dining Hall meals.
c)      When eating at Outtakes for lunch, take water bottle and granola or Clif bar—buy sandwich or salad and yogurt.
d)      When at Late Night, get coffee at minimum; salad, sandwich, or and other healthy food for snack and/or meal at maximum.
7)      Study hours per day at maximum, every other day at minimum (depending on classes per day, etc.):
a)      Poli 301-02: 1 hour, 40 minutes
b)      Poli 206-01: 5 hours
c)      Poli 320-01: 2 ½ hours
d)      Biol 106-01: 2 ½ hours
8)      Read Parsha and/or Haftarah at least every other day if not every day.
9)      Write in Prayer Journal at least every other day if not every day.
10)   Shower at least once if not twice a week.
11)  Watch only “The O’Reilly Factor” at 8:00 (Monday-Friday) as TV watching and “Geraldo at Large” at 10:00 (Saturdays) except for special occasions (e.g., little or no TV during finals, and watch more on Election Night or during breaking news events that merit more coverage)
12)  Attend UMBC Hillel Shabbatot and other events, and Students For Israel events when possible.
13)  Don’t procrastinate.
14)  Call Mom every day.
15)  Make more—or at least closer—friends.
16)  Pay attention in class.
17)  Don’t spend unnecessary amounts of time on Facebook, Twitter, etc.
18)  Do some stretches at least every other if not every day.
19)  Brush teeth at least every other if not every day.
20)  Write verse or Biblical insight in planner every week in weekly notes.
21)  Go to church at least every other if not every week.

Can I trust you all to pray for and encourage me to make my best efforts to abide by these goals which I set for myself? A lot of these goals are hard to abide by with my Cereral Palsy, OCD/Anxiety/Depression/mild ADD/possible Aspeberger's, propensity to eat out of boredom, emotion, etc.; and the energy taken out of me from dealing with my C.P., etc. among other issues with which I deal.

Friday, July 20, 2012

What Constitutes "Lies R Us" And Other Personal Attacks?

With all due respect to Bill O'Reilly, one can't say that--for example--that part of "Lies R Us" includes calling out my family, asking the legitimate questions about Toby Keith and exposing Cathy Dallwig (the so-called "Caring Director"), Mike Khandjian (the "pastor" who called the Aron HaB'rit a "holy piece of furniture") and the rest of Chapelgate Presbyterian Church, even though I vowed never to talk about them again, though they remain as-yet unapologetic examples.

By the way, I have never received an apology once. I did, however, during that contentious time, receive a lawsuit threat from Steve Dallwig--sorry, bud; but your wife's a public figure within a known religious institution, and--as far as I know--I was generous not to mention or even much remember your catty lawsuit threat until now. Also, the people who are making people run in droves from the Church nowadays and into, say, Buddhism and Atheism are people like you and your "Caring Director" wife--who is supposed to reach out to people like me when we go AWOL from church, because (for example) our disabilities leave us  from being able to ride to church (which, thank G-d, mine did) or even crippled in corners within our own houses and dead (and what a shame having a dead body of a church, now-ex, church member would've been if the case were that I wasn't coming to church because I was dead and nobody from Chapelgate--e.g., the "Caring Director"--called my house or e-mailed to ask if I was okay). By the way, I give credit to one church member for reaching out to me during that time (the aspects of which still crawl under my skin from time and time), and that church member certainly isn't among the Dallwigs.

Therefore--as I said--,with all due respect to Bill O'Reilly and using the Dallwigs as examples, I am (and others aren't) engaging in "Lies R Us", "personal attacks", and "smearing"--I am (and others are) following the advice to "Call it like you see it"; especially when "it" concerns even apparently-low-level, supposedly-private-citizen figures like the Dallwigs who are an example of Laodicea

By the way, I'm like an elephant: I never forget. I forgive; I don't begrudge; but I never forget, and I warn others when they need to be warned and use examples when they need to be used. Also, I'm happy at my new church home; as I said, I just warn others when they need to be warned because I don't want to them to fall into the pitfall and hole that I was in for years--and I'm still waiting for the necessary apologies:

  1. From "Pastor" Mike Khandjian for demeaning and degrading what he (if he paid attention in seminary at all) knows that we also call Ha'Aron-HaKodesh--the Holy Ark, not "a holy piece of furniture" that one can use and/or abuse anytime that he or she likes. I'm waiting for an apology to me and my people--many of whom won't turn to Jesus because foolish "pastors" degrade the very Aron-HaKodesh that held a representation of Yeshua--in fact, part of Yeshua in written form (since the Ten Commandments are part of the Word of G-d, who became flesh).
  2. From the Dallwigs. As I said, "I don't begrude; but I never forget, and I warn others when they need to be warned and use examples when they need to be used." Because of catty, fraudulent, unBiblical lawsuit threats and not being an actual "Caring Director", the Dallwigs get used as examples of why Chapelgate is part of Laodicea. 

Thursday, June 7, 2012

How Bloggers, YouTubers, Etc. Can Honestly Do Powerful Things...

For example, Brett McGurk (if the allegations are true) is in trouble and ruined his own career thanks to blogger Peter Van Buren. As for examples who I've blogged about, my unbelievably-corrupt family (among whom there is a righteous remnant who I've acknowledged), Toby and Krystal Keith, and Chapelgate Presbyterian Church. When I blog, record a YouTube video, etc.; I try to do what I can with what I have where I am--in order words, I try to do everything legally, ethically, and morally. This means that I don't hack (e.g., I see what I can on Facebook and only what I can see. I don't do password stealing or anything; and even if I knew how to hack, etc., I wouldn't do it--though it might be tempting in some cases--admittedly, I might love to hack into my dad's and grandparents' email accounts to see what they're saying and to whom they're talking about me, what I've found out, etc.).

By the way, I'm still dis- or un-recommending (however you'd like to say "not [or no longer]" recommending) any association with the people and organizations who I've dis- or un-recommended in the past--that is, unless your association can be for the good or better of them or (if nothing else) the better of everyone else. But remember, "Do not be deceived: “Evil company corrupts good habits.”" In other words, you will be corrupted by whom you are around if you do not have strong filters. "I know and am convinced by the Lord Jesus that there is nothing unclean of itself; but to him who considers anything to be unclean, to him it is unclean".

If you can even be around certain people, organizations, etc. (much less read their books, listen to their music, watch their shows, etc.), more ko'ach to you. However, since ""“The heart is deceitful above all things, [a]nd desperately wicked" and--even if you're a believer, you may not have the filters, be careful with whom you associate or toward whom you gravitate in any way, shape, or form. "For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also" and "[a]s in water face reflects face, [s]o a man’s heart reveals the man."

Monday, December 19, 2011

So How Do We Help the North Koreans? By Learning From Experience With China and Africa...

  • Actual excerpted conversation with names censored for privacy. Just a reminder that we don't want to further shell shock and impoverish the transitioning North Koreans:

  • this...child's ignorance makes me sick.

      •  Agreed. That makes him just look disgusting and heartless. Ignorant people gross.

      • I cannot believe there are people out there that legitimately feel like this.

      •  I would be ashamed to be an American if we turned our backs and ignored the starvation of people especially children in other countries when we had the means to help. American or Somalian we are all human.

      • I hope that stupid fucker gets shot

      • I don't hope he gets shot. However I definitely hope he gets shipped to Somalia. Mayhap then he'd do something meaningful with his life, make an impact and do humanity some good.

      •  Ignorant dumb shits like that never change, and will never make a difference.

      • Sadly if someone can say something like that about starving children and be so heartless, he will probably always have that mentality. I hope he comes across people who treat him they way he treats them so he can have a taste of his own medicine.

      •  that's more then likely due to the fact that people come at them with comments like that. You have to educate and inform, not throw around death wishes and insults. If he were to visit that country, I could almost guarantee his tune do a 180.

      •  It's an incredibly sad fact that people with that mindset exist. I definitely agree on that. It pisses me the fuck off..

      • Agreed.

      •  That guy is a horrible person. In, like, the essence of the word.

      • He pointed out we shouldn't help them due to the fact they didn't 'ask'. I am the hell do they ask? Write an email with their non existent internet? Send a letter with there probable illiteracy? Call the president up? What the hell!!

      • Somalia hasn't had a functioning government since 1993. So.... yeah. Obviously, what with all their means of communication and stable social conditions, it's totally the Somalians' fault for not asking.

        What a fucking idiot.

      • Correction: no functioning government since 1991.

      • Well other than the warlords who run the various pirate gangs they have no functioning government.

      • Seriously, why should we help starving malnourished children you ask? BECAUSE THEY ARE FUCKING PEOPLE! Children nonetheless!!! This makes me facepalm so hard.

      • Okay, you all are jumping on him for STATING HIS OPINION. Remember this, just because you all have different views, does not mean that one person is right over the other person.

      • ...

      • While I do agree that his post was a little on the cold side, people still need to look at it from both sides, or else we will become the "Ignorant Dumb Shits" in being one minded. Also he does bring up a good point on natural selection...

      • WOW... really, educate yourselves please.:(

        An opinion like this is awful. It doesn't matter what compares or not. It's the fact that people are suffering and someone can look at that and say 'who cares? this is meant to happen so let it.'
        It's one thing to think that about a civil war, or a natural disaster, still fucked but more understandable. But these are children. There is nothing RIGHT about thinking this is alright.
        This is a UNIVERSAL WRONG. There is no 'other side' to see here.
        3 hours ago ·  ·  2
      • Nicole Czarnecki ...'s probably a Ron Paulite.
        3 hours ago · 
      • ...
        actually, we are right, and he (and you) are wrong. Just because a person has a different opinion doesn't make it a VALID opinion.
          ·  1
      • Nicole Czarnecki ‎"Things Fall Apart" gives the perspective, however, that there were some ways where we overreached or allowed overreaching and didn't let the Africans help themselves within the context of what actual help we were giving them. In other words, we went too far with the religious and political proselytizing. We should've let the Africans choose their culture, and we contributed to much of the Third World Africanism in that way.
        4 minutes ago · 
      • Nicole Czarnecki Another book on a similar vein is "The Good Earth", based on Pearl S. Buck's watching where we overreached in Asia. So, the one point that at least the (you can fill in the blank)s like ... affected the bringing up of is that we only made some Third Worldism worse by religiously and politically overreaching.

    What the Ron Paulite said is that Africa is naturally selected for doom and failure, thus we shouldn't help them in any way, shape, or form. Some could argue the same for North Korea and Pyongyang. But just because all the nations except Israel (including the US, the Kushite nations, and the Koreas) will indeed be made an end to (cf. Jeremiah 30:11)  does not excuse an abandonment of tikun ha'olam. Yet in no way should religious and political proselytizing, including Torah el hagoyim v'Mamlahkah Adonai, be done but b'Adonai yachid. As I said, "We should've let the Africans choose their culture" and not made proselytization a condition or an incentive for helping them. The same is with the North Koreans.

    The best that we can do is say:

    “Now therefore, fear the LORD, serve Him in sincerity and in truth, and put away the gods which [the Hebrews'] fathers served on the other side of the River and in Egypt. Serve the LORD! And if it seems evil to you to serve the LORD, choose for yourselves this day whom you will serve, whether the gods which [their] fathers served that were on the other side of the River, or the gods of the Amorites, in whose land [they would] dwell. But as for me and my house, we will serve the LORD.”