The "Nicole Factor" Is Online

Welcome to the Nicole Factor at

Google+ Badge

Stage 32

My LinkedIn Profile

About Me

My Photo
My blog is "The Nicole Factor" on Blogspot, my Facebook page "Nicole Czarnecki aka Nickidewbear", and YouTube and Twitter accounts "Nickidewbear."

Nickidewbear on YouTube





Messianic Bible (As If the Bible Isn't)


Facebook and Google Page

Reach Me On Facebook!

There was an error in this gadget

Search This Blog

Talk To Me on Fold3!

Showing posts with label AncestryDNA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AncestryDNA. Show all posts

Sunday, April 19, 2015

By the Way, Kibosh the Khazar Theory Altogether

When I talked to the website owner of and asked him about the testing of Khazar skeletons, I received the following reply, in part:

Why are we still talking about the Khazars? They aren't involved inour ancestry at all and archaeologists and historians say it may bedifficult to distinguish Khazars proper from the other peoples of Khazaria,plus I'm not aware of anybody who has tested Khazar skeletons or plans to, butyou are welcome to ask around now that Russians have successfully testedmany populations like the Yamnaya and the Mal'ta.Based on the latest evidence I would say the Khazars are Volga Finnicintermixed with East-Central Asian Turks and other assorted peoples, andtheir Turkic element is the same one found in other Turks and Mongoliansaround Eurasia, a particular affinity never found in Ashkenazim....In lieu of ancient DNA, modern populationshave proven to be good proxies to determine ethnicity. Did you see my recentarticle "The Chinese Lady who Joined the AshkenazicPeople"? Ashkenazim are also descended from a Korean-related people, from amore recent Asian-Ashkenazic marriage.
Also by the way, I compare Dr. Himladevi "Himla" Soodyall to "Dr." Eran Elhaik. I don't know what agenda "Dr." Soodyall has, although I can ascertain that she attempted to delegitimize the Lemba as much as "Dr." Elhaik attempted to delegitimize Ashkenazi Jews.

PS My dad's Ancestry atDNA in even Analysis 2.0* does, in fact, show a very-slight amount of Middle Eastern atDNA. It also shows a tiny bit of East Asian, Melanesian, Scandinavian, and Finnish/Northwest Russian atDNA. The Melanesian atDNA is probably related to the East Asian atDNA, and Scandinavian atDNA to the Finnish/Northwest Russian atDNA.

*"We create estimates for your genetic ethnicity by comparing your DNA to the DNA of other people who are native to a region. The AncestryDNA reference panel (version 2.0) contains 3,000 DNA samples from people in 26 global regions."
The AncestryDNA panel does need to be balanced**, though:

The updated AncestryDNA ethnicity estimation V2 reference panel contains 3,000 samples carefully selected as described to represent 26 distinct global regions (Table 3.1), each with a somewhat distinct genetic profile. As a comparison, our Beta panel represented only 22 distinct global regions.

Region# Samples
Great Britain111
Europe East432
Iberian Peninsula81
European Jewish189
Europe West166
Finland/Northwest Russia59
Africa Southeastern Bantu18
Africa North26
Africa South-Central Hunter-Gatherers35
Ivory Coast/Ghana99
Native American131
Asia Central26
Asia East394
Asia South161
Near East141
Table 3.1: The Final AncestryDNA V2 Ethnicity Reference Panel

Regional Polygon Construction

As described above, we divide the globe into 26 overlapping geographic regions. Each region represents a population with a somewhat distinct genetic profile. Where possible, we use the known geographic locations of our samples to guide the delineation of regional boundaries. Figure 3.6 shows an example of the information used to define regional polygons.

For a more-accurate panel, they should have 115-16 ("115.384615"). Also, the selection should not be "carefully selected as described". The selection needs to be as random as possible. This cannot be accepted:

Before using the reference set to estimate ethnicities of AncestryDNA customers, we perform several experiments to lend support to the quality of this new reference set. This involves testing the performance of our ethnicity estimation procedure on the reference set of samples. (See Section 4 below for details regarding the statistical method used for ethnicity estimation.)
First, we use the new panel to do a leave-one-out analysis. In this experiment, we remove one sample from the reference panel and then use the remaining panel to estimate the ethnicity of the sample that has been removed. We repeat this process for every sample in the panel and then look at the average predicted ethnicity for each region in the set. Figure 3.4 shows the results of this experiment as a box plot.

Figure 3.4: Leave-one-out analysis of the V2 reference panel. Here we plot the results of an experiment in which each sample is removed from the reference set one-by-one and its ethnicity is estimated using the remaining panel samples. Each bar represents the average correctly predicted ethnicity for all samples from a given region. It is clear from this graph that for the majority of samples in each region, we predict at least 80% of the genetic ethnicity to be from the correct region. However, there are exceptions. In particular, our average prediction accuracy for samples from Great Britain, Western Europe, Iberian Peninsula, and Mali are not quite as high. There are many factors affecting the accuracy of these numbers, most importantly the number of reference samples in the panel for each region and the genetic distinctness of each region.

The purpose of this analysis is twofold. First, reference panel samples with poor performance in the leave-one-out analysis were removed. This included samples from individuals whose leave-one-out ethnicity did not represent their ethnic group of origin. (See for instance, Figure 3.5) Second, the leave-one-out plots allow us to define population boundaries and demonstrate our ability to accurately estimate the ethnicities of our reference panel samples using our method (see next section).

Figure 3.5: Removing Reference Panel Candidates. Leave-one-out estimation for a Reference Panel Candidate with 8 terminal ancestors from the Ivory Coast and Ghana region. While this sample was initially included as a candidate of the reference panel for the Ivory Coast/Ghana region, the sample’s leave-one-out ethnicity estimation reveals primarily Benin/Togo ancestry. As a result, this sample was removed from the reference panel.
In scientific studies, this is unacceptable unless it is for case studies and/or other non-generalizable/non-extrapolatable studies:

There are two sources of error that limit generalizability: sampling error (chance variation) and sample bias (constant error) which results from inadequate research design. Sampling error (but not sample bias) can be taken into account using statistics.
Probability samples are representative of the population. They permit generalization to the population from which they are drawn. There are two types of probability samples: Random and stratified.
Random - each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample.
Stratified - a miniature representation of the larger population with regard to proportions within selected strata (e.g., gender, education, socioeconomic level). Individuals are randomly selected within strata.
table of random numbers or the random number function in Excel can be used to select a random sample from a population.
If a sample is, thus, "poor", it should be put in an "Indeterminable" or a "Poor Sample" category. 

Some would argue, "Well, what about other studies that don't have very-balanced numbers"? Given that numerous studies on Ashkenazi Jews, Lemba Jews, and other groups have been done overtime—and most have shown similar or equal results—the studies balance the numbers at least somewhat in the end. Therefore, the argument about "other studies that don't have very-balanced numbers" is moot at this point.

 ** Stratified Sampling – This technique divides the population into meaningful homogenous or similar groups based on a certain characteristic (e.g., gender, race, socioeconomic status) and then selects a simple random sample from each group. [For example, if you were interested in the affects of student motivation on academic achievement, particularly by grade level, you would divide the population into their respective grade levels and then randomly select an equal number of 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th graders.]


Thursday, February 6, 2014

I Told You That Something Stinks...

There is  too much coincidence for there to be a coincidence if you ask me. Adam Danilowicz abandoned his sons and married Caroline nee Grabowska in Luzerne County, and he was related to Katarzyna Danilowiczowna Czerniecka? And Katarzyna was the in-law daughter of a Kruszynska, and Rywa Krusznyska in Suwalki married Josel Grabowski in Suwalki? Also, a Wierzbinski married an Andrulewiczowna, and the Andrulewiczes and Danilowiczes are somehow related by blood?

Give me a break. "Coincidence" meir tuchus. Some in my family, at PolishForums, etc. can try to play with me, and I am not stupid. The story unravels more amazingly than I thought! I told you we're Jewish. I told you that I figured out that Great-Great-Granddad Julian's parents were married Roman Catholic in Mackowa Ruda in order to secure their freedom from being peasants, and that they left for Lipsk and returned to Judaism once they could!
"Szlachta" meir tuchus! As I said, some in my family, at PolishForums, etc. have tried to play a not-so-stupid person. Mazel tov to them; they have failed! 

Just because I don't fit someone's (for a lack of a better term) "Jew mold" doesn't mean that I'm not a Jew! As I told a friend, in order for me to be a Jew to them, I would have to have a fully-Jewish mom or have converted to Judaism. It still pisses me off. I even had my dad take an autosomal DNA test to prove that we're Jews.

It is important because I'd like to make aliyah someday and I could get accused of being a Pole posing as a Jew. People have already spread rumors that I'm not a Jew. I've even seen on my blog search feed that people have searched "nickidewbear not jewish". The lie that's probably going around in any case is that I'm a Slavic American descended from Slavic Catholics and szlachta, and that I'm posing as a Jewish American who's descended from Crypto Jews. If the rumors were true, I'd rightly be in trouble. Isn't that my family lied to me for years enough? Well, I'm either lying or I'm not, and the rumor is that I am lying. As I said, isn't that my family lied to me enough? I don't need to be lied to and about further.

I literally feel like Geraldo Rivera—who was lied about by an Anti-Semitic disc jockey who claimed that he was a Jew named Jerry Rivers and posing a Puerto Rican to take advantage of affirmative action—and that dad who was told that his part in his children's creation did not count—"How can you convert to what you are? Do I have to take a DNA test to prove you are my children?"

As I said, I had Dad take a DNA test. It shows West Asian, "Caucus", and Iberian (Sephardic) DNA! And I have the records, etc.. What more do I need?

Friday, January 17, 2014

In Response To A Question About Whom Ashkenazi Jews Are

Ashkenazi Jews are Jews who: 

a) settled in Germany 

b) came to Eastern Europe and Eurasia from Byzantine 


c) fled from Spain and Portugal during the Inquisition. 

In my case, for example, my dad's autosomal DNA (with AncestryDNA Version 2.0) indicates that our case is b) and c). My cousin Kevin, however, got matches in Germany for the R1a1a1 YDNA marker, but this is probably because we have Foczko relatives who moved there. The Foczkos are Ashkenazi Levites; and, like the rest of the 52% of all Ashkenazi Levites, the Foczko men have the R1a1a1 marker. I do not know where the Rusznaks, who were also Ashkenazi Levites, fall; as none of the Rusznak men, as far as I know, have ever taken a YDNA test to see whether they have a R1a1a1 (Khazar or Slavic), J (Jewish), or E3b (Jewish) marker.

The atDNA of Dad, nonetheless, heavily indicates Eastern European/Khazar admixture, as I should have originally expected. Also, I know that it's Khazar instead of Slavic because I have the ADH2*2 allele—I know this because I get sleepy after one glass of wine (which is nice, given that my paternal granddad's paternal granddadwhose tribal origin we do not knowwas an alcoholic. By the way, his mother's surname doesn't help, either; as "Daniłowicz" simply means "ben-Dani'el". I had hoped that "Daniłowicz" might indicate tribal affiliation with Dan, but it doesn't.).

For more information, see

Saturday, October 19, 2013

AncestryDNA Autosomal DNA Analysis Version 2.0 and Problems Therewith's AncestryDNA still has problems. is on Version 2.0, though, to be fair. Nonetheless, part of their methodology still includes counting "nations of the former Yugoslavia—Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia"—as part of Eastern Europe (Europe East). 

Also, they count European Jews as native to Europe—"The chart above (in blue) shows that the DNA of the typical person from the European Jewish region is very unique to this region. Most people from this region have very little (if any) DNA shared with neighboring regions. However there are some exceptions to this. When we estimate ethnicity for people from this region a small minority see results showing 65% of their DNA is similar to this region."

Their methodology also includes major problems—e.g., "The next step is to estimate a customer’s ethnicity based on the DNA of the reference set of individuals, as well as the DNA of the customer. We assume that an individual’s DNA is a mixture of DNA from a set of “source” reference populations." Their reference panel includes "a candidate set of 4,245 individuals."

That's not even 0.0001% of the global population. (Divide 6,000 by 6,000,000,000,000 to get this number.). They say at the end, nonetheless, that they are improving that. "Currently, we are working to even further expand our global reference panel for future ethnicity updates. We have already begun genotyping and analyzing samples for a future update which will provide finer-grained estimates of ethnicity."

However, they did seem to confirm what I was saying about us being Jewish (Also count that other Jews have had problems being noted as Jewish by AncestryDNA), and that we may have had possible Sephardic ancestry:

By the way, "Palestine" (Israel) is erroneously counted as part of the "Caucusus". So are Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Google "AncestryDNA European Jews" and "AncestryDNA Ashkenazi Jews", by the way: you will see that other Ashkenazi Jews are having problems with AncestryDNA. Also, they continue not to match my dad up with a Fosko third cousin and a Margevich cousin:

  • [Margevich Cousin]
  •  Possible range: 5th - 8th cousins
    Confidence: Moderate
  • Last logged in Oct 6, 2013
 41 people

  • [Fosko cousin]
  •  Possible range: 5th - 8th cousins
    Confidence: Low
  • Last logged in Oct 6, 2013
 1764 people 

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Ancestry.Com and the Khazar Theory?!

Chalilah: a scary thought just occurred to me--AncestryDNA and may consider some Ashkenazi and some Sephardi markers as, e.g., "British Isles" (Western Europe) or Eastern Europe. In fact, one DNA match with Dad was an "100% British Isles" person with "Schwartz" in her surname list ("Schwartz" and "Czernecki", or "Black", were used among Jews, especially Ashkenazim. In fact, a Levite grave bears the surname "Black".). Also, a Margevich was considered:

  • Eastern European 
  • Finnish/Volga-Ural
 = Shared Ethnicity

Her Margevich was connected to ours, by the way--clearly, the Andruleviches and Margeviches stayed close even after some became Anusim--and the Anusi ones stuck together in at least Mount Carmel:

  • Birth
  • Marriage
    19 Jan 1909 to Alexander Ludorf
    Mount Carmel, Northumberland, PA
  • Marriage
    after 08 Dec 1920 to Klementy Nikita "Klem" Mucha
    Detroit, Wayne Co., MI
  • Death
    09 Sep 1938
    St. Joseph Mercy Hosppital, Detroit, MI

(Boy; wait till she finds out that she's Jewish--because we're Jews!).

They might believe the Khazar Theory! O_O They are Mormon, after all, and the Mormons have had credibility issues re Jewish records before (as I blogged about especially to prove to especially  people among my family, who claimed that finding a record in a Jewish-records search doesn't make them Jewish--remember that the Mormon Church was changing Jewish records into, e.g., German and Russian ones).. Also, Sephardim do sometimes get slandered as "Khazars" along with their Ashkenazim v'Ashkenazyot achim v'achot by Pseudo-Jewish Anti Semites.

If is engaging in replacementism and lashon hara, they have to be stopped from doing so. Especially many Ashkenazi Jews, and Ashkenazim Anusim v'b'nei-Anusim, suffer enough with trying to prove who we are.